How will the U.S. retrogression affect CSPA

Question

I’m a U.S citizen, and in 2010, I applied for an F4 green card for my sister who is Iranian. It got approved in 2015. We were hoping that once my sister gets her interview, her daughter, my niece, could also come along. With the 2020 retrogression, much of our progress has been halted, including my niece’s CSPA age going up. She is currently 24 years old. Will the trend allow for my sister to get her green card and apply for her daughter before the CSPA age expires, or will we have to look for a different approach to bringing her to the u.s? Even if not, an estimate as to when my sister’s welcome letter will be sent out is appreciated. It is my dream to move my family here with me, and any help is kindly appreciated.

Answer 1

If the petition was pending for about 5 years, then the daughter will age out at around age 26 (i.e. age 21 + the exact length of time from the I-130 filing until it was approved). If a visa number doesn't become available before that point, she ages out, and can no longer immigrate as a derivative beneficiary.

The latest visa bulletin shows that F4 Final Action Date is in Mar 2007 (assuming they weren't born in India, Mexico, or the Philippines). So there is still about 3 years worth of petitions before it gets to yours. Given this, it is highly unlikely that a visa number will become available before the daughter ages out in about 2 years.

If she ages out, either of her parents can petition her after they immigrate. An unmarried over-21 child of a permanent resident is in the F2B category, which right now has visa numbers available for petitions filed almost 7 years ago. She would need to not marry during this time, as there is no category for married children of permanent residents.