Why does the estimated completion time until case decision differ between the USCIS public website and the USCIS applicant private account?

Question

E.g., in one case, I see x months on https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant and x+4 months on https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/, for the same USCIS field office, even though the naturalization candidate applied 1 month ago (so I'd expect to see x months on https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant and x+1 months on https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times).

https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant says:

*These completion projections are based on case processing for applicants who have been lawful permanent residents for at least 5 years. For all other applicants, completion projections may vary.

So I wonder why the estimate on https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant has a 3-month difference with the estimate on https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/.

The number displayed on https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/ reflects the time it took the USCIS to complete 80% of cases over the past 6 months.

We generally process cases in the order we receive them. This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months. Each case is unique, and some cases may take longer than others. Processing times should be used as a reference point, not an absolute measure of how long your case will take to be completed.

Does https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant use a different percentage?

Note that for the first two weeks after submitting N-400, https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant did display the same estimate as https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

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Screenshot from https://my.uscis.gov/account/applicant:

Answer 1

2 possible explanations:

Explanation 1: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/ mentions:

Sign in or create a new account to see your personalized case completion time.

So perhaps something in the application made the personalized case completion time lower than the average case completion time lower.

Explanation 2:

A likely explanation is a timing difference in updating the data egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/processing-times-faqs How often is this website updated? We make every effort to update the processing times every month. For most forms, the processing times displayed are based on data that are one month old. For forms that still use the cycle time methodology, the processing times displayed are based on data captured approximately two months prior to updating the page. Traveller 11 hours ago