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The estimates I read regarding long one has to wait for the naturalization interview after submitting the N-400 Application for Naturalization Form (mirror) vary from 4 months to 14 months:
Does there exist some more reliable estimates? Does the USCIS give some expected waiting times, as they do for some other processes?
It really depends on which field office you end up at. USCIS doesn't provide more specific time estimates any more. They used to provide estimates per office, but AFAIK they stopped doing that.
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/ gives some estimate for the N400 processing time for each USCIS field office, but no breakdowns for each step of the N400:
I am guessing that the end of the N400 processing is the oath ceremony day but I'm not sure.
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info explains how to read the two numbers:
Estimated time range: This column lists case processing times as a range for select forms and locations. The lower value of the range is the time it took us to adjudicate 50% of our cases. The upper value of the range is the time it took us to complete 93% of our cases. See below for a description of how these ranges are calculated.
Update (2022-09-03): since around May 2022, the displayed number reflects the time it took the USCIS to complete 80% of cases over the past 6 months.
We generally process cases in the order we receive them. This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months. Each case is unique, and some cases may take longer than others. Processing times should be used as a reference point, not an absolute measure of how long your case will take to be completed.
Historical data can be found on https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt but isn't broken down per USCIS field office.
One can also look at the USCIS quarterly reports: (screenshot). They give an interesting breakdown per USCIC field office, e.g. for the USCIC field offices in Washington state in 2022 Quarter 2 (April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022):
(symbols: D means Disclosure standards not met; - Represents zero or rounds to 0.0.)
In 2022 Quarter 1 (January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022):
In 2021 Quarter 4 (October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021):
Announced on March 29, 2022: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/uscis-announces-new-actions-to-reduce-backlogs-expand-premium-processing-and-provide-relief-to-work the USCIS aims at reducing the N400 processing time to 6 months by the end of FY 2023.
Some websites or phone applications provide their own time estimates. E.g.:
Overall Statistics (for last 90 days):
Total
RecordsAvg. Total
DaysAvg. Days
to 1st NOAAvg. Days
btw NOA
and Interview278 233 2 230 Overall Statistics (for last 180 days):
Total
RecordsAvg. Total
DaysAvg. Days
to 1st NOAAvg. Days
btw NOA
and Interview453 254 2 251 Overall Statistics (for last 365 days):
Total
RecordsAvg. Total
DaysAvg. Days
to 1st NOAAvg. Days
btw NOA
and Interview897 257 3 252 Overall Statistics (for last 3600 days):
Total
RecordsAvg. Total
DaysAvg. Days
to 1st NOAAvg. Days
btw NOA
and Interview6220 214 5 208
Lawfully: https://play.google.com/store/apps/dev?id=6573503041147342972&hl=en_US&gl=US:
Lawfully also keeps track of the history of the official processing time at each USCIS field office:
Some websites track applicant cases, e.g.:
